Fantasy O Zone

"Issue Number 9"- How I get ready for a Live Draft at my house!

2007-03-12T16:47:00.000-05:00

Hi all! I hope it's been a good off season for you!

By this time of the year, you should have already done most of your homework and should be making final preparations for your drafts. My draft is this coming Sunday, so I thought it would be good to share some of the things I do when preparing for a live draft........I am the commissioner of my league and we always draft live at my house. My league is chocked full of talent, and winning a championship is very tough. The league members are some of my closest friends and relatives, most of which live in the area. They are all very good fantasy players and all prepare very well for drafts. The draft is always the best time of the year, and we always have a great time!

So how do you prepare for a live draft? Especially one that's going to be conducted at your home with most of the players in attendance, but also having two managers that need to draft online? Well, first I'll talk about what you can do at home to make the draft comfortable for everyone attending. It's imperative that everyone can sit around one table and that everyone have ample space for their draft tools. I always get a couple of 8 foot folding tables and set them up in my living room. It gives everyone enough elbow room so we can be comfortable. In my league, most of the players show up with laptops loaded with their draft lists and such. It's important to have wireless internet access so everyone can connect. In my league we use a browser based conferencing website that allows sharing of multimedia. That way, we can have one person using a spreadsheet to record the draft picks and it is shared online for those who cannot attend. You can also chat using the website. This enables the online drafter to see the board as it's updated and communicate his draft picks as well. We also project it onto the wall for the live drafters and they can also pull it up on their laptop computers so they have it right in front of them. It suits our needs perfectly. Also, when having a live draft at your home, make sure that you have everyone come to your home a couple of hours early, eat some food, socialize a little, drink a beer or two, get their equipment set up and their lists ready, and get ready to draft. BUT, once the draft starts, it's down to business and time to have some fun!

As far as draft preparation is concerned, I'm keeping track of players year round so that takes most of the work out of it. I spend a lot of time in the off season tracking players and I also read a lot of fantasy material and spend a lot of time looking at other people's draft lists and so on. I usually wait until about 2 weeks before my draft to start preparing my draft lists. I've found that if I create them too early, I end up rearranging them again before the draft. I create an overall ranking list that I refer to during the draft and I also create a positional rankings list in the order that I would draft them. I also create a Tiered Rankings list that has positional rankings based on the rounds in which they should go in the draft. I've separated it by sets of rounds. Tier one players should go in the first round. Tier 2 players should go in rounds 2-3. Tier 3 players should be drafted between rounds 4-6. Tier 4 players should go in rounds 7-10. Tier 5 players should go in rounds 11-15. Tier 6 players should go in rounds 16-20. And Tier 7 players should go in rounds 21-25. I also created a list at the bottom of guys that are on my watch list and unestablished guys that could break out this year. This list usually contains 5-6 guys that I may want to target at that position either early in the draft, or sleeper picks that I may want to target late in the draft. I got this idea from http://www.sportfanatics.net/Baseball.htm... I liked their tier list so I created my own, modifying the lists to suit my strategy and league configuration. I added an overall rank number next to each player so that I can see each players overall value on the tier rankings list. I like the tier list because it shows me where I can get the most value at any point in the draft. It shows me what positions I should be targeting during each round of the draft. For example, on my list there are no catchers listed in either Tier 1 or Tier 2. This tells me that if I were to decide to draft a catcher there, I would be taking him too soon. I would be overpaying. At the same time, there are over 10 outfielders in Tier 1 and Tier 2. This tells me that if I want one of the top 10 outfielders, I should target one during the first 3 rounds or they will most likely be gone. During the draft, I will reference this list to see who has been overlooked. I will see which guys should have gone in the 3rd round but are still sitting there in the 4th and 5th rounds. I'm hoping this will help me get maximum value from each pick.

Well, that's all for now. I hope this helps you, especially if you are planning to have a draft at your home. There is nothing better than draft day for fantasy baseball! I can't wait until Sunday! This will be the 9th season for our league, and this year, we have a new player........That's right, the FantasyMan himself! Good luck Mikey!

Have a good one!
TP

"Issue Number 8"- Late Season Call-Ups

2006-09-04T17:53:00.000-05:00

This week the FantasyMan asks, "What 2 or three call-ups/prospects do you feel are ready to help jolt your fantasy team RIGHT NOW to help you win a championship??? In other words, are there any call-ups/prospects that are good enough to unseat a regular for the remainder of the season??"

TP's Picks:

Every year I always look forward to the time when major league teams start calling up minor leaguers. In many cases these guys will struggle, but once in a while you can find a really good player that will help boost your fantasy team. This season, there are a few guys that I think could make an impact on your fantasy team. In this issue, I will focus on two of them.

First: Delmon Young......Here's a guy that has a ton of talent, and apparently a hot head too. He was suspended for 50 games this season in the minors for throwing a bat at an umpire. Now that he's served his suspension, he's picked up right where he left off, hitting the snot out of the ball. He is a very good hitter that can hit for average and power. I picked him up as soon as he was called up for Tampa Bay because, one, he's very talented and I think here to stay, and two, he will be in the lineup everyday for the rest of the season. He's worth a look, expecially if you are a little short in the outfield........For keeper leagues, you've got to get your hands on this guy. He has a very bright future if he can control his temper.....

Second: Howie Kendrick......I like this guy because he plays second base, which is a fantasy position that is a little short in talent. This guy is batting .293 in 188 at bats for the Angels since being called up. He doesn't hit for power much only accumulating 2 homers so far, but hits doubles, can steal a few bases, and can get you some RBI's......He's worth a look in deeper leagues, especially if you are short at talent at the second base position. He's also worth a hard look in keeper leagues.....

Thanks for reading! Feel free to post comments on the tagboard or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

TP

Scott's Picks:

Well, obviously there are quite a few options to go with here. A lot of
great players were called up(Lester/Weaver/etc) at various points this
season, and there are quite a few guys that will help out a lot. I will
choose 1 pitcher and one position player, to try to mix things up:

1) John Maine, SP: NYM. First off, the stats tell you all you need to know
about this kid. 4-3, 3.50 ERA/48 K's in 61.2 IP/1.09 WHIP/only 18 BB. The
guy has great stuff, and plays on the best team in the NL by far!! Also,
with Pedro and Glavine coming back, but not quite where they need to be, he
becomes in my mind the most viable starter down the stretch. While Pedro
gets back in the rotation next week and Glavine tries to regain form for the
playoffs, he will be a great option for September. He will help your team
immensely if you're in need of real good pitching, and he could provide that
extra good starter to put you over the hump.

2)Andre Ethier, OF: LAD. Now, this guy has played in 100 games, and was
called up in June, but it is shocking to me that he's not on everyone's
fantasy roster as at least a very good backup(if not starter for the weak-OF
teams). The guy has only hit .335 with a .376 OBP with 11HR/55 RBI'S/47
RUNS/19 2B/7 3B for the 1st-place Dodgers. He has heated up even more
recently, with 12 hits in his last 10 games, including 3 multi-hitters. I
just picked him up and will start him for the rest of this week, and he will
help any fantasy managers that aren't completely loaded at OF(VERY few teams
really are, but some think so!!). He also has 5 SB, which isn't a lot, but
the OF is usually reserved for power guys, so a stellar AVG/2B/3B guy gives
you a multiple threat guy that pitchers are still trying to get used to.
His plate discipline early was his one weakness(23 BB/67 K's), but that is
improving as well. He gets that down, and watch out next year.

Both of these guys will help your teams right away, and although they are
call-ups and not mainstream yet, they will be.

Scott

"Issue Number 7"- Must Have Keepers!

2006-07-26T23:05:00.000-05:00

This week the Fantasy Man asks, "Gentlemen, now that we are entering the home stretch and trading deadlines are approaching, in keeper leagues, who is the single best keeper for next year or years to come age 27 or younger???? Who do you recommend as an absolute MUST HAVE KEEPER for 2007.... under 27???? Remember, price doesn't matter!"

TP's Keepers:

Another good question from the Fantasy Man. I could make this one really easy and just say keep Albert Pujols, no matter what he'll cost you next year, but I won't, because we all know that already. It's too easy, too obvious. So instead, what I will try to do here is pick two guys that I think are must keep guys that may not be so obvious to fantasy managers. These are guys that are young, have outstanding potential, have already started to blossom, and will make an even greater impact next year. These are guys that will be hot commodities next season and could be a great foundation for your team going into the draft.

My first player is Francisco Liriano. This is a guy that most people didn't know at the beginning of this season, but has emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's a dominant left hander that has unbelievable stuff. He throws a hard slider that no one can hit. He was babied at the beginning of the season by Minnesota, and didn't make his first start until May 19th, but has been stellar since, winning 12 games already and sporting the lowest ERA and BAA in baseball among starters. This guy is a must keep in any league format. He gives you everything you want from a pitcher. High strikeouts, low walks, low ERA, low WHIP, and wins. What more could you ask? And to top it off, he pitches along side fellow lefthand stud and close friend Johan Santana. These two are already the best one, two punch in baseball and will be next season as well. If you have him, keep him. PERIOD.

My second player is Grady Sizemore. This is a guy that is up and coming, has already proven that he's a five tool player, and is still getting better. This season, he's batting .307, with 16 Home Runs, 31 Doubles, 49 RBI's, 82 Runs, and 15 Stolen Bases. He's already making his mark in the majors and he doesn't turn 24 until next week. This guys five tool ability makes him very valuable in the keeper market. What better feeling could you have than going into a draft knowing that you already have a young 5 tool player laying the foundation for your team? If you have him, keep him. If you let him go, he will be a very hot commodity at your draft next season and you'll have to pay a lot more to get him. He is a must keep stud.

Francisco Liriano and Grady Sizemore are two guys that must be kept this season in keeper leagues. They are young, already great at what they do, getting better by the day, and will both be great fantasy players next season barring injury. If you have them, keep them. If you don't, try to work out a deal with the manager that has them. These two will help you through the end of this year and will be even better next.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post comments to the tagboard, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

TP

"Issue Number 6"- Midseason Call Ups

2006-07-05T22:15:00.000-05:00

This week, The Fantasy Man asks, "Since people are inquiring on a daily basis, who are some players who have been called up, are playing regularly or somewhat regularly, and can possibly create a spark on your fantasy team if you can get them?"

Scott's mid-season picks:

Well, this poses an interesting question!! Whereas it's pretty easy to
find a breakout star or "stud" rookie(Liriano/Weaver/etc.), it's a little tougher to find a great mid-season call-up. You have to look at the numbers, obviously, but you also have to make a decision: is this player a flash in the pan and will fade when September rolls around? Or will this person be rock-solid and provide the boost to either get his team in the playoffs or advance far in them? With this in mind, I have selected these two call-ups:

1) Jon Lester, SP-Red Sox. The numbers speak for themselves(4-0/3.06
ERA/30 K's in 32.1 innings), but it's the little things that make me want this guy come crunch time. First, he gives the Red Sox key depth behind Beckett and Schilling, and provides that key 3rd starter when the playoffs start. I've seen him pitch a few times, and his stuff looks real good. He doesn't overpower like Liriano and Verlander, but his accuracy is top-notch and he can bring a good fastball with 2 other "out" pitches. I predict that he will finish with 10 wins, an ERA in the 3's, and be a key component to making the Red Sox division champs and my sleeper pick to win it all.

2) Zach Miner, SP-Detroit Tigers. Now, I know it's better to pick a
pitcher and a position player to even things out a bit, but I'm going
against the grain here-and for good reason. Since Mike Maroth went
down to an elbow injury, all he's done is go 6-1 with a 2.57 ERA and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in his seven starts. He's not dominating either, but he has great location, a nasty change-up, and already pitches like a veteran. He is on the best team in baseball, and gives them a #5 starter that could be a #2 on half the teams in the majors. Look for him to continue to shine, put up more wins even if he struggles a bit(attn: Tigers' O), and my crystal ball is showing me a game 4 ALCS with Lester/Miner on the bill........not too shabby for a couple mid-season callups!!!!!

TP's mid-season picks:

First I should say that the fantasy man has given us another great question to work with here. When it comes to mid-season call ups that can help a fantasy team, I will advise most fantasy managers to be careful. There are always a few guys that get called up mid-season that can help a fantasy team, but not many. When talking about hitters, you should only take a chance on these guys if certain conditions apply. For instance, you have an outfielder that is nicked up and will be on the DL for two weeks. You may be able to find a guy that was called up and has been hot early to fill in for them. However, many of these guys (but not always) find success early but then cool off dramatically due to the pitching they're facing. They may be able to help you short term, but dropping an established major leaguer to pick up a guy that was called up mid-season could come back to haunt you later. So don't get too caught up in them unless they're just mashing the ball. However, once in a while you may be lucky enough to find a guy that will have a great season for the rest of the way. Like a Jeff Francouer a while back. Was called up and tore it up the rest of the season, establishing himself as a major leaguer.

As a fantasy manager, you must always be on the lookout for potential minor league call ups. You should keep a close eye on guys that are having very good seasons in the minors. Once a guy is called up, watch their first few games closely. Usually you can tell if a guy is going to have a bad time in the majors by taking a close look at his first few games. Once in a while you may get lucky and find the guy that's going to make a positive impact for the rest of the season. If you're that guy, it can give you the boost you need to climb to the top of standings.......Happy Hunting!

Here are a couple of guys that I think could make an impact under the right conditions for the remainder of this season.......I also went with two pitchers, mainly because I'm more excited about what's available from a pitching standpoint this season than I am from a hitting standpoint.

Jared Weaver-SP LA Angels- Jared is a great young pitcher who got a taste earlier in the season while Bartolo Colon was on the DL. He was demoted to AAA when Colon came off the DL, but his stay was short, and has now returned to the rotation. Ironically, his call up, this time permanent, was due to his brother Jeff being traded to St. Louis. In six starts this season, he is 6-0 with a 1.12 ERA and a WHIP of 0.74....In many leagues he is no longer available, but if he's on the waiver wire in your league, SNAG HIM NOW! He has great stuff and will be a factor the rest of the season.

Chuck James-SP-Atlanta Braves- James is the Braves top pitching prospect, and was called up on June 25th. Since then, he has a 3-0 record with an ERA of 3.15. He has a very good changeup that compliments a low 90's fastball. This kid has incredible command of his pitches, especially working the corners of the plate. He moves the ball in and out very well. The only downfall is that he leaves the ball up, on occasion, giving up the long ball. If he can keep the ball at the knees, he will be VERY effective in the majors. I look for this kid to win at least 7 games in the second half and have an ERA less than 4 and a whip around 1.20.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post comments on the tagboard, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com.

TP

"Issue Number 5"- Midpoint Strategy

2006-06-19T19:39:00.000-05:00

This week's question from The Fantasy Man is the following:

Since every fantasy manager out there is different and now that we are almost at the midway point, what are YOUR specific strategy or strategies that you are applying to help your team make a run to the top of the standings, or to stay atop of the standings?

The JDizzle's 6th Place Outlook:

Hey all of you fantasy guys and dolls out there, I hope everyone is having a safe and happy summer so far. Being a teacher and having all the time off to keep up with my fantasy team is great. Enough blab, let's get it started.

At this point in the life of your league (most leagues anyway), most of your waiver wires are depeleted except for a Brad Wilkerson, Marcus Thames, Chris Shelton, David Bush, Joe Blanton types. While these players may be upgrades at certain positions for you, don't try and replace a slumping starter with a waiver wire fill-in (except for one...but we'll get to that below).

Most owners, by the mid-point, know their strengths and weaknesses. Owners are willing to trade their strengths for your strengths. I have made a couple of moves like this to get players like Papelbon, Hafner, Kenny Rogers, Nomar and others to shore up my pitching and offense. Trades are the way to go at this point. Find a manager who has what you need. For example, if you need a third baseman, make sure he has two good ones and that one of them isn't his/her UTIL spot. Deal your strengths for their strengths. Don't send trades that are ridiculous either, something in the vein of Doug Davis for Scott Rolen might send another manager to the post board to bash your reputation all over cyberspace. Like TP says...you've got to give to get.

I'll leave you with this, if these players are still available on your waiver wire and you need help, go get them right now. This is, in essence, my midseason waiver-wire team.

C-Russell Martin (future of Dodger's catching duties)

1B-Brad Wilkerson (K's will hurt you, but 13Hrs looks nice)

2B-Jose Castillo (played quite well for Pirates, even though power outbust two weeks ago is more of a mirage than a reality)

3B-Brandon Inge (more homers than Aramis Ramirez, Hank Blalock, and Miggy Cabrera, but that .228 average hurts....ouch)

SS-Freddy Sanchez (another Pirates infielder who is picking it up...no power, all average)

OF-Matt Kemp (He's the real deal, get him in your starting position-----here's the line....19 Games, 7 HR, 18 RBI, .339 AVG, 4SB, 1.090 OPS....you make the choice!!!!!!!!!)

P-Scott Olsen (2.76 ERA, .095 WHIP, 4 Wins, in 32.2 innings for Florida in the last month)

Hope these comments help.

JDizzle--------------Listen to Further Seems Forever

TP's Strategy Advise:

Now that we're halfway through the season, fantasy managers should be spending a little time performing an assessment of their team, to find their strengths and weaknesses. Take a little time to figure out what you can do to make your team better. If you are at the bottom of the standings, you may need to make some wholesale changes to try to boost your performance and give yourself a shot at the playoffs. If you are at the top of the standings, you may need to make a couple of subtle changes to boost your results in a couple of specific areas while not sacrificing too much in other areas. If you're somewhere in the middle, you may need to work out some multi-player deals in order to boost yourself in a couple of areas that you are lacking. The first step though is to always perform a self assessment.

Once you have done that, now you can start looking for ways to upgrade. Always go to the waiver wire to see what you can do. I check the waiver wire every day to see if someone gave up on a guy that I think will have a good second half and will be an upgrade for me. For instance, I have Jeff Kent who went on the DL three weeks ago. I saw Freddy Sanchez on the wire and picked him up to fill in while Kent was out. He's played so well and boosted my team to the point that I'm still playing him in matchups that I need average and hits. He's had double digit hits every week I've played him. Can't hardly take that out of your lineup. The bottom line is that you can always find someone who's hot at the time to fill in for a couple of weeks. Spend time on the waiver wire.

As far as trading goes, you have to do a few things to work out good trades. First, you have to know what you need. Second, you have to spend a little time assessing the other teams to see what they need. Third, you have to try to find teams that have both what you need, and need what you have to give. This will narrow down your search for teams that you could work out a deal with. Then, send them a proposal, but make it a fair trade. Let them know that you're willing to give them what they need, as long as they're willing to give in return. In my league, all of the managers are friends of mine. They are all available for me if I need to give them a call to discuss trades. This makes life so much easier. You can accomplish a lot in a few minutes on the phone. When I'm serious about trades, I always make the phone call and let them know. I know that this is not always the case, so if you're negotiating trades by email be patient. It can take many offers and counter-offers before a deal will get done.

I'm currently sitting in first place in my league, and while I like my team, I know that I need a boost in Home Run production. I rank 8th in the league in home runs hit. I've got a bunch of doubles hitters that don't hit a lot of home runs. I have a good core in the infield, but I need an outfielder that will boost my home run numbers. I have the top pitching staff in the league, ranking first, second, or third in every pitching category, so I know I have pitching to give. I also have average to give, as my team is tops in batting average so far this season. I have a lot of average guys that don't have a ton of power. I've been targeting teams that have depth in the outfield and are short on starting pitching. There are three teams in the league that I feel I can work out a deal with that can give us both a boost. So I've been sending trade offers to all three of them and are currently in negotiation with two of them. I know that I can get an offer done that will help both sides, but the key is patience. Play the game, listen to what the other manager wants, and try to help both of you. If you send ridiculous offers, people won't take you seriously. You'll end up not being able to work any trades out because guys will shut you out. Don't be that guy. I hate that guy. And there's one in every league. You look at his trade offers and laugh because they're so ridiculous. It gets to the point that you don't even respond to them anymore......

Just remember the following and you can make the necessary changes to your team that will boost your production.

Always check the waiver wire for steals. If you're not checking it every day, you should be.
Know what you need and what you are willing to give for it in a trade.
Target managers that need what you want and have what you need.
Send fair trade offers and counter offers. If you really want a certain player, tell them.
BE PATIENT!

It's no secret in my league what I'm looking for and what I'm willing to give. I have openly communicated that to the rest of the league. I want a power hitting outfielder and I have many quality starters that I'm willing to deal for one. I've been sending offers and receiving them. A deal will get done, I'm sure of it.

I'm in a league with a bunch of managers that don't typically like to trade a lot anyway, so making a deal is exceptionally hard. It seems to be very difficult to make a trade in my league. So far this season, there have only been three trades go through in the whole league. A couple of two for two deals, and a three for three deal. That's it. This is a lot less trade traffic than you typically see in a baseball league. That makes the task even harder.

Every fantasy manager will have different needs to fill but there is always a way to work out a deal that will help give you the boost that you need, if you're willing to work at it. Your needs will be different than mine, but a little work and number crunching will enable you to go out and get what you need to get the necessary boost you're looking for. Study your team, but more importantly, study your opponents team. If he has three stud outfielders and only needs three, why would you send him a trade offer that would be giving him another one that he can't use? Assess his needs and send him offers that give him a boost where he needs it. It will be more appealing to him and he'll take you seriously because of it. And of course, always check the waiver wire. A guy in my league got Nick Swisher off the waiver wire this season because another manager gave up on him too early. He's been a stud ever since. Guy's kicking himself in the butt every day because of that move. But the other manager got a huge boost for nothing. I actually put a waiver request in for him but got beat out by another manager. If I could have picked him up, I wouldn't have the outfield power problem I have now, so it pays to be paying attention.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post to the tagboard, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com.

TP

Scott's Strategy Advise:

Well, that's a really good question. I won't reveal ALL my secrets,
but there are a few things I like to do over the course of a year. Right
now, I have done a lot of waiver activity this year. I have seen the likes of
J. Vidro/C. Shelton/C. Blake/M. Maroth/D. Lowe/O. Vizquel/K. Youkilis/M.
Alou/B. McCann, with others, maximize their value for me. I've kept
all that have stayed very productive, and let go/traded others after I had
utilized their stellar play to the limit. I ALWAYS watch the waiver
wire and do my research on who's up-and-coming, who's slumping, and who is a
potential breakout player. Also, I try to achieve "balance" on my
team. I feel I have great SP/RP, a balanced offense with power guys and
SB/Runs/avg./OBP guys as well. I feel balance is the key to winning in
these leagues, since the competition is so tough. You have to fill
your roster with guys that fit all your playing categories, and also achieve
the depth you need to account for days off/DL time/fluctuations in
hitting/pitching stats as regulars struggle.

Finally, I always do all of this(for the most part) early on in the
season. I establish my team, achieve my balance through trades/waiver wire
wonders, and try to time it so that all of that comes together for the strech
run/playoffs. You won't be successful 100% of the time, but over time
you'll get really good at making your team competitive on a yearly
basis. I've never prided myself on winning titles as much as I have being up
near the top every year when all is said and done. My success in
baseball/football/basketball leagues is based on what I just said(and
some good luck!!), and as long as you stay sharp, do your research, be
aggressive in trading and MOST IMPORTANTLY take chances on instinct/gut-you'll do
great more times than you struggle.

Scott

"Issue Number 4"- Who's gonna get hot? Who's gonna cool off?

2006-06-05T17:16:00.000-05:00

This week the FantasyMan asks, "With some players off to great starts and some players off to terrible starts, who are the players that will either tear it up for the second half or crap it up for the second half?? Each of you pick one for each!"

JDIZZLE'S BIASED PICKS.....

My first pick for who is off to a slow start is a biased one....probably because he is currently manning the 1B position on my underachieving team: Mark Teixeira of the Texas Rangers. With Mark being my first pick in our 10-team draft, those 144RBIs, 43 Hrs, and .301 avg last year had me drooling. So far his numbers have been far from that....6 Hrs, 30 RBIs and a .299 avg. Arlington has yet to heat up and Teixeira has just starting getting those extra base hits and RBI'S. He is a doubles machine lately and is starting to come around. Because of his slow start, I had to jettison Chase Utley/Chipper Jones for Travis Hafner/Nomar Garciaparra. With room for movement at the 2B position (I also have Felipe Lopez) this was a must. But if Teixeira and Hafner both get going at the same time.....watch out! So Teixeira owners....keep holding out, he'll come around and when he does, you can tell all of the other owners in your league 3 beautiful words: "Told Ya So!"

My pick for who will most certainly cool off for the second half is not such an easy task. But after looking over all of the canditates: Corey Patterson, Aaron Harang, Kenny Rogers, etc, I have to go with TP on this one....Bronson Arroyo. He just can not, and will not keep up with those numbers. While his ERA is sure to rise, his win total may peak out at about 14-15, ERA around 3.90 and 1.28 WHIP, not bad numbers, but not a top 10 major league pitcher. Hold on to him, but don't get discouraged if he gets knocked around in the coming weeks.

I'm outta here....JDIZZLE
Listen to Mae

TP's Picks:

This is a good question because it's a topic that all fantasy managers struggle with over the course of the season. We're always looking at who's hot and who's not....We're constantly making predictions about guys and trying to make trades to get the most out of who we have while trying to get the most value in return. We're always looking for the cold guy that you can get cheap while he's down while not giving up alot for him, and we're always hoping that the guys will heat up at the right time and send us to the championship.

There are a few guys that I've been keeping a close eye on this season that have gotten off to slow starts but I think will heat up in the second half. I can sit here and name guys like Richie Sexton, Aramis Ramirez, Cliff Lee, Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, Todd Helton, and Jeff Kent. All of these are guys that I think will pick it up a little in the second half......BUT the guy that sticks out in my head the most is Andy Pettitte. Here's a guy that has really struggled so far and I think will pick it up for a couple of reasons. The biggest reason is Roger Clemens. I think that Pettitte has always needed a guy with more experience than him to guide him through the season. Since Clemens hasn't been playing, Pettitte has had to take on more of a mentoring role with the young Houston pitching staff. I think that Pettitte will benefit from Clemens coming back because Roger will assume the leadership role among the pitching staff and Andy will just be able to pitch. I think that this alone will benefit Andy Pettitte. And when you look at Andy's numbers so far, you have to assume that he will pick it up at some point. He's has alot more talent than the numbers suggest.

There are also guys that have been tearing it up so far that I think will cool off a little. Guys like S. Hillenbrand, E. Renteria, E. Byrnes, B. Penny, V. Wells, S. Ponson, and A. Rios are all guys that have been hot so far that I think will cool off down the stretch. The name that sticks out the most for me though is Bronson Arroyo. This guy is 7-2 with a 2.40 ERA after spending the last two years with ERA's over 4.02 while pitching for the powerful Red Sox. I think his numbers this season are directly attributed to the fact that he's now pitching in the NL where hitters haven't had a good look at him. I think in the second half when the players start to get used to facing him, he's gonna get knocked around and hard. I see his numbers taking a huge hit as hitters get some at bats against him and I think that before this season is over, his ERA will be back over 4.00 and he'll end up with a .500 record.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post questions to the tagboard, add your comments, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com.

TP

"Issue Number 3"- In fantasy baseball, who is more valuable, the hitter or the pitcher?

2006-05-21T11:28:00.000-05:00

This week the Fantasy Man asks, "Which fantasy player is more valuable, the hitter or the pitcher? Say you are doing a trade straight up, who is more valuable overall?"

TP's Column:

This a very good question Fantasy Man!

I'm going to begin this column by saying that there are so many factors that weigh into trades that are made, that in many instances, it doesn't matter who's more valuable. It only matters that the trade is making both teams better. You have to use what you have available to get what you need. You have to have both hitting and pitching to win. Both are very important and are very valuable commodities to the fantasy manager. However, if I had to choose which is the more valuable commodity, I would have to say that the pitcher is more valuable, for two major reasons.

The first reason pitchers are more valuable is simple. Supply vs. Demand.

When playing fantasy baseball, one thing that you always have to consider is supply vs. demand....At positions where depth is thin, you have to put more importance on finding quality players to fill those positions. You have to give more priority to these positions and draft players earlier at those positions to secure players that are going to be productive. Since not every manager will have a quality guy playing in that spot, you can gain an advantage by being one of the few that has a quality player. Lets face it, when it comes to finding quality pitchers that win games, have high strikeout potential, and a low ERA, there just aren't enough of them to go around. There are far more hitters that will have a good average, hit homeruns, and score runs. I've noticed that in my fantasy league this season, guys are fighting over quality starting pitching and no one's really worried about improving their team on the hitting side. There are enough hitters to go around, AND there are quality guys sitting on the waiver wire that can be picked up and started if one of your hitters gets hurt. On the flip side, there are NOT enough good pitchers to go around, and there are no QUALITY guys sitting on the waiver wire that can help you if a pitcher gets hurt. Quality pitchers carry more value simply because they are in short supply. If you take a look at your fantasy team right now, chances are that you have good solid players batting in every offensive position. Of course, some of them are hot right now and some are killing you right now, but they are all solid players. But, if you look at your pitchers, chances are there are at least of couple of average pitchers on your roster that you rely on to get you innings each week. Chances are you are spending a large portion of your fantasy research time making decisions regarding who you are going to pitch on certain days if you're in a daily league, based on matchups, etc. but you are not spending near that amount of time deciding which outfielders you're going to play that day. Quality pitching is more difficult to get, therefore it is more valuable.

The second reason is the discrepency between the amount of stats put up on a weekly basis by a hitter vs. a pitcher.

A hitter is in the lineup every day. If he has an off day, he can bounce back and still make his overall numbers for the week look good. He may go 0-4 on monday, but then bounce back and still get you 10 hits for the week. A pitcher will only give you a couple of appearances each week at best, and if he has a bad start, it hurts your overall numbers more because he's not in your lineup every day. If you have a nine man batting lineup every day, that is 63 starts made by hitters each week. You are probably getting close to 200 AB's out of your hitters each week. You are probably getting 15-20 appearances MAX out of your starting pitching and relief pitching combined. We are getting the same amount of stat weight in our fantasy matchup put into a lot fewer starts by pitchers. Therefore, every bad start a pitcher makes carries much more weight than the bad day for a hitter. This makes it much more important to make sure that every pitcher in your lineup is consistently putting up good numbers. You can get away with a batter or two having an off week and still put up good looking overall numbers for the week, but if you have a couple of pitchers go 3 innings and give up 9 runs, your pitching numbers for the week are a mess. There's not as much opportunity to bounce back from that, and adding that to the fact that there is equal weight placed on pitching and hitting in our weekly matchups, it makes it more important to have consistent, quality pitching.

There are other reasons that I think that pitching is more valuable, but these are the two biggest.

For me, one of the things I always try to accomplish each season is to have depth in regards to pitching. Every fantasy manager is always looking to upgrade their pitching, so if you are the guy that has the most pitching, guys will come to you and offer you some pretty good trade deals. There is no better trade bait than a quality pitcher, whether it is a starter or closer. If I made a post on my league page today that said that I have Jake Peavy and Todd Helton available for trade in return for an outfielder, I would get 7 trade offers for Peavy and 1 for Helton. The reason is that all fantasy managers are always trying to upgrade their pitching, but they are not always looking to upgrade at 1st base. Most fantasy managers have at least 2 first baseman that they are happy with and are everyday starters, but everyone is always looking for pitching. I try to make my team deep at pitching, first in the draft, then by getting steals from the waiver wire, and then I can use these bargaining tools to fill any other holes in my team.

From past experience I can tell you that you are in much better shape going into a trade deal if you have quality pitching to give and need a good hitter. It is much easier to work out a deal when you are the one giving up the pitching. If you are sitting on a ton of good hitting and need pitching, you can still get deals done, but it is much more difficult to get a manager to part with pitching than it is hitting, and you might not always get a pitcher of the caliber you need in return for your hitter. Guys just don't like to give up pitching. At least, not in the leagues that I've been associated with.

Well, that's it for now. Thanks for reading! Feel free to post comments, ask a question on the tag board, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com with any questions or ideas for upcoming issues.

TP

JDIZZLE

Pitcher.....few studs are few and far between.

"Issue Number 2"- Three Minor League Players who could make an impact in the near future.....

2006-05-12T16:24:00.000-05:00

This week, The Fantasy Man asks, "Who are three players that are currently playing in the minors that fantasy managers need to keep a hard eye on to possibly "Grab and Stash" or be ready to pick up when the time is right?"

JDizzle's Minor League Picks

Fantasy Finders for the Midseason

Hey all, I love this question, this is my bread and butter. One of my favorite things about the offseason is seeing all of the offseason moves made to make room for upcoming studs from the minors...Josh Barfield in San Diego (trading Loretta), Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder in Milwaukee (trading Overbay), and Ian Kinsler in Texas (Soriano to Washington).

There are two major kinds of AAA studs in fantasy baseball. There are the studs that are impressive in the minors and are highly touted but haven't had that break out season in the majors yet; or there are the players who are not big names but make huge fantasy impacts just because of the teams they are on. Dallas McPherson in LA, David DeJesus in KC, and Alexis Rios in Toronto are all examples of the first kind of second-tier fantasy players. But my three players for this questions are chosen based on a myriad of factors. Before I begin, let me give my three prospects who are sure to make a fantasy impact on your fantasy roster before October.

1) Stephen Drew-Arizona Diamondbacks, currently playing for the Tucson Sidewinders (AAA)

2) Melky Cabrera-New York Yankees, just called up from Columbus

3) Anthony Reyes-St. Louis Cardinals, currently playing for the Memphis Redbirds (AAA)

The three things that I look at when coming up with this list is: opportunity to make the club, availability of position openings, and sheer talent.

Stephen Drew is an absolute stud. In 35 games, the more highly touted of the Drew brothers is hitting .299 with 6 homers and 22 RBIs. Here is my take on him...Craig Counsell is currently playing shortstop for the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks. Counsell, while serviceable at shortstop, will not last the season. Drew is playing great and is the future of this D'back team. Even their first round pick, Justin Upton, was moved to centerfield this season in single-A because Arizona knew Drew would be handling shortstop duties in the Arizona sun for years to come. If you are in an NL-only league, you need to grab him as soon as he becomes available, especially due to the fact that the NL shortstop position isn't extremely deep. If you are in a deep 10-team league, grab and stash him if you have the space.

Melky Cabrera has been on my list for a long time. When Sheffield went down, his fantasy value increased, but when Hideki Matsui injured his wrist, Cabrera's value increased exponentially. Even before he was called up, he was on this list and know that he has arrived he is a must-have in most leagues. Through 31 games he was hitting .385 with 4 homers and 24 RBIs. He can play left and right and is strong kid with plenty of pop and a good eye in the box to boot (9 k's in 122 AB's). With that Yankees lineup surrounding him, he is bound to get some pitches to swing at. And when he gets ahold of 'em, watch out!

Anthony Reyes is my 3rd pick. Being a Cardinals fan, he had to be on my list. While only 1-1 for Memphis he has 40 k's in 44.1 innings pitched. He had a great spring and narrowly missed making the team. Now with Sir Sidney on the DL and the Cardinals in possible need of starting pitching help, Anthony Reyes could be in the rotation sooner than most realize. Mulder, Marquis, Ponson and Suppan are all free agents after this year and any of them could be dealt at the deadline for some outfield help, especially if the deal is sweet enough. Reyes has electric stuff and already has a little MLB experience under his belt. Don't count this stud out and get him if you need late season help at the starting pitching position.

I'm out......The JDizzle

listen to emery......

TP's 3 Minor League Picks

I love this question Fantasy Man! There are a few guys that I've been watching closely lately. I'm going to share three of the guys that I've spent the most time looking at recently. My list includes two pitchers and a hitter, partially due to the fact that I spend a lot more time looking for pitching talent rather than hitting talent. Quality pitching is hard to find so it requires more effort and number crunching. I'm going to begin this issue with a player that I have been watching since 2002 and I think is ready to make an impact this season in Major League Baseball.......As a matter of fact, he just got his opportunity.....

Cole Hamels is a starting pitcher in the Phillies organization and actually made his first major league start Friday against Cincinnati. He pitched 5 innings, giving up 1 hit and striking out 7, while walking 5 batters and allowing no runs. Cole is the Phillies top pitching prospect and a player that they feel will be a quality starting pitcher for years to come, IF he can stay healthy, which has been a problem since he was drafted. He has three above average pitches, including a fastball in the low 90's, a quality curveball, and a devastating change up. This season, he has made 7 combined starts for single A Clearwater and AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre, posting a 1.05 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, allowing 26 hits while walking 10, and striking out 65 batters in 43.2 innings. He has simply dominated the AAA batters, allowing only 1 run in 23.1 innings while striking out 36 batters in 3 starts. He also put up a 14 strikeout effort in a seven inning outing, and pitched one complete game shutout.

I like him for a few reasons. One, he's a lefty and I'm always looking for quality lefties. Two, he has the ability to locate pitches well and change speeds very well. Three, he has three pitches that are above average. Putting it simply, he has good stuff clear across the board.

The downside......He's been injured a few times already in his short career. He suffered from back spasms last season as well as breaking his wrist. He's also had some minor elbow problems.

IF Cole can stay healthy, he will be a solid pitcher for years to come........Many experts are saying to "grab and stash" him NOW, even in shallow mixed leagues. I think that he's worth a look, as he has the ability to make an impact, and with pitching being thin in Philly, he'll probably get a decent opportunity to show us what he's made of. I know I'll continue to watch him and wait patiently for the right time to snatch him up. The time may be very soon.

Another starting pitcher that I've been eyeballing is Chad Billingsley who is in the Dodger's minor league system. He's playing for AAA-Las Vegas this season, but could possibly be in the Dodger rotation as early as the All-Star break. He's 3-0 this season in the Pacific Coast League with an ERA of 2.04. He has 40 strikeouts in 34.1 innings and has allowed 23 hits. He's only 21 (will turn 22 in July) but has shown significant progress in terms of command of his pitches. I've been watching this kid for the last 2 seasons and I think he's about ready for the jump to the majors, and that's saying a lot for a kid his age. His arsenal includes a fastball in the low 90's, a good slider, a curveball, and a changeup. His changeup still needs a little refining, as well as his control, but he's making steady progress with both. I like him because he's shown a good K/IP ratio as well as a good K/BB ratio. When scouting young pitching talent, these two categories tell you a lot about their ability to dominate hitters and demonstrate good control. I'm sold on him and I eagerly await his arrival into the bigs.

My third player is a player that I don't necessarily think will make an impact this season, but will in the near future. Brandon Wood is a 21 year old power hitting shortstop with good size who is in the Angels organization, playing for AA-Arkansas right now. He has gotten my attention because he is a rare commodity, a shortstop that can hit for power. He has the potential to become a major league player as early as next season. His biggest downfall is that he strikes out too much, but he should improve these numbers as he progresses to the majors. Right now he's batting .275 with 8 home runs and 11 doubles in 131 AB so far this season for the Travelers. He's also driven in 28 RBI's already. I'm always looking for good players for the future, and this guy is impressing me. He catches my eye because he plays at a position that doesn't normally put up a lot of power numbers, but he can. There are never more than a handful of power hitting shortstops in the big leagues at one time, and this guy fits into that category. I will be keeping a close eye on his development, and you should too.

Well, that's it for now. Feel free to post comments, ask questions on the tag board, or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

TP

"Issue Number 1"- Who is the better hitter, Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez?

2006-05-05T21:54:00.000-05:00

Issue Number 1- Pujols or ARod? (Question supplied by Mikey at the Fantasy Man Show)

We're going to start this blog off with an issue that every fantasy baseball player dealt with when planning for the draft this season. This is a debate that will probably return before the draft next season, and the season after that. Who is a better hitter? Pujols or ARod? If you were one of the lucky players who drew a number 1 pick, who would you take? Which stud would you choose to carry your team this season?

Before I get into who I think is better and why, I just have to say that I think we're comparing green apples to green apples in this debate. These two hitters probably went 1 and 2 in your draft, with ARod going first some of the time and Pujols going first the rest of the time. No one's going to complain about having either of these guys, as long as you have one of them. I think these two guys are the best two hitters that MLB has to offer right now, and before it's over, both of them will be in the Hall of Fame.

Ok, so we're comparing the best of the best. So, who is the best? There are a number of factors that have to be considered. Things such as the supporting cast around them, their ages, growth potential, injury risk, the positions that they play, and how deep those positions are for fantasy owners during the draft. I think we should also take a look at what the numbers they've put up so far tell us about the future.

First, lets discuss the supporting cast. I think the overall lineup of the Yankees is better than that of the Cardinals, but not by enough to be a big factor. Both guys are studs in good lineups and will have the potential for many RBI opportunities as well as the potential to score many runs. The Yankees and Cardinals are two of the best teams in baseball and both have the potential to score a lot of runs, and I think that ARod and Pujols will be major factors in their respective lineups.

Next, let's discuss age. Pujols turned 26 in January while ARod will turn 31 in July. I know that I felt older at 31 than I did at 26 and while this is not going to be a huge factor in deciding who to take, it has to be considered. Players become more prone to injury as they get older so one would assume that ARod would have a greater potential for injury than Pujols would.

Now let's talk about growth potential. Both of these guys are great players, but with Pujols being 5 years younger than ARod, you'd think that he'd have the better potential for growth. ARod has played 10 full seasons to Pujols' 5. He's 5 years older and in the prime of his career. I see his numbers staying where they are for the next couple of years and then start to decline. Pujols, who has been stellar through his first 5 seasons, has the potential to get even better, and that's scary. If he shows the same growth that ARod showed over his second 5 years in the league, you will be amazed at the numbers you will see. I will get into that shortly.

Now let's discuss the positions that they play. Most experts agree that 1st base is a little easier on the body than 3rd base is. Combine the fact that ARod is 5 years older and playing a position that is harder on the body, and you can only conclude that ARod is more likely to get injured. You can, however, make a case that 1st base is a position in which a player is more likely to be involved in a collision with a player running down the line. We all saw what happened to Derek Lee in the recent past.

As far as fantasy depth goes, I think we would all agree that 1st base is a deeper position than 3rd base when drafting talent for your fantasy team. However, 3rd base is not a position that one would call "weak", so regardless of whether you take a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman with your first pick, there will be guys left to be taken at either position when the pick comes back around to you. You may be sitting a little better if you were to take the stud 3rd baseman first, but not by much.

Now let's get into the numbers. Since Pujols has only been in the league for 5 years to ARod's 10 years of service, I decided to take a hard look at ARods numbers in two lump sums. I divided his stats into two blocks. His first 5 years and his second 5 years. During ARod's first full 5 years in the league, he hit 184 home runs. During his second 5 years, he hit 240. That's a growth of 56 home runs the second 5 seasons of his career. That gives him a total of 424 home runs in his first full 10 seasons in the league. Add the 5 he hit in the 48 games he played in '95 and you have a total of 429 coming into this season.

Pujols has hit 201 home runs in his first 5 seasons. If he were to show the same growth over the next 5 years as ARod did, he would hit 257 home runs over the next 5 seasons. That would give him a total of 458 home runs in the same 10 year stretch that ARod hit 424. That's a difference of 34 home runs.

Now let's talk batting average. In ARod's first 10 seasons in the majors, he's hit .300 or less 5 times. He's a career .306 hitter at the time of this printing. Pujols has never hit below .314, and has hit .329 or better in 4 of his first 5 seasons and has a career batting average of .332 at the time of this printing. Pujols is also on pace to score 50 more runs in his first 10 seasons than ARod has.

Check out the difference in double production. Over ARod's 10 year career, he has hit 342 doubles. Pujols has hit 231 in half the time. Double that total and he's projected to hit 462 doubles over the same 10 year period as ARod. That's a difference of 120 doubles. That's a big difference for fantasy players who use 2B, TB, Slug Pct, OPS, etc.......That tells me that Pujols hits more line drives that can split outfielders than ARod does. ARod gets more air under the ball and some of them get caught. Pujols hits them flat and hard.

The biggest factor in my choice of Pujols over ARod would be the strikeout totals. Pujols in on a pace to strikeout 688 times over his first 10 seasons. ARod has struck out 1288 times over his first 10 seasons. That's a difference of 600 K's! There is no doubt who puts the ball in play at a better clip. Advantage Pujols!

Personally, I would not be disappointed if either of these guys were to land on my fantasy team. They are both stellar hitters and play on good teams that score a lot of runs. While I think that ARod is one of the best hitters the league has to offer, I'd have to say that Pujols is, without a doubt, the best. When the pick comes to me during the draft, if Pujols is still on the board, he's mine. He's at the top of my list, and should be for a long time to come.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to post comments or email me at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

Have a good one!
TP a.k.a. Commish

JDIZZLE'S TAKE ON THE MATTER

Let me start off by saying to Tony...."thanks for leaving me something to say." When I heard what this week's topic would be, I was mulling everything you said in my head....except for one thing: supporting cast. While Pujols and AROD both have great supporting casts, I think that the organization for which Pujols plays is going to be better for him in the long run. The St. Louis Cardinals have a younger core of players surrounding Pujols than AROD does. This is going to cause Pujols to get more chances to swing the bat and thus, more chances to help his team AND YOUR FANTASY TEAM win. I will also say that AROD has been on 3 teams in his 10 year career and has had his moments of slumping...but Pujols is as consistent as they come. Look at AROD's average right now, for instance, compared to Pujols. If you are in a keeper league, Pujols is already kept, but if your league is considering moving to a keeper league and you have Pujols, make a ploy right now for a keeper league and keep Pujols for as long as he has a bat in his hand. I know the lucky stiff in our H2H Keeper League is drooling at the prospect of keeping him on his roster year in, year out. AROD's owner may be looking at having to drop him in a few years. That's my take, take it or leave it.

JDIZZLE (A.K.A. JDIZZLE)

A Little History.........

2006-05-04T20:11:00.000-05:00

Before we get into the "issues", I just wanted to take a minute to tell you guys a little about us. We are three fantasy managers and very close friends who play in a very competitive head to head league. My name is Tony and I am the commissioner of the league and have been since it's inception 8 years ago. Jeremy joined the league in it's third season and has been a die hard manager ever since. Scott joined the league last season and stepped right in and proved that he was a top notch manager. We all absolutely love fantasy baseball! Since we all play in the same league, we will be able to give you "insight" in how managers see things that are happening in their leagues. In this blog, we hope to celebrate our differences and the competive spirit that we all share, as well to give fantasy players insight into issues that may be going on in their league......

The three of us are part of a 10 team head to head league. We use a 12/12 scoring system.
The offensive categories we use are: R, H, 2B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, TB, Ave, OBP, OPS
The pitching categories we use are: App, IP, W, L, S, H, ER, BB, K, TB, ERA, WHIP
The minimum pitching requirement for each week is 40 Innings.
We have a 24 man roster and 2 DL spots.
6 man playoffs with the 1 and 2 seeds getting first round byes.

We have tinkered with the categories a little over the years and have learned that this format requires us to create a well-balanced team. You must have a well-balanced team or you don't stand a chance of winning. You can put up all the power numbers you want, but if your team can't hit for average and steal bases, you will lose......You have to have hitters that can hit for power, ave, and can run......You also have to have pitchers that can give you quality starts, win games, and relief pitchers that can get you saves as well as help keep the ERA and WHIP down, while adding to the weekly strike out total. Our league stresses balance, and since all 10 managers in our league are cut-throat guru's, you have to stay on your toes to be successful. Everyone is looking to beat someone to the punch, and it demands a lot of research and time to stay at the top.......

Well, that's a little about us.........

Feel free to post comments and you can email us any questions that you have at fantasyozone@yahoo.com

Have a good one!
TP a.k.a. Commish